
The Journal of Food Protection just posted an open-access article that every food safety regulator, industry executive and member of Congress should read, and then reread Table 1. “Tracking Illnesses Caused by Four Foodborne Pathogens Over Four Decades of the Healthy People Initiative,” by Robin Pendley Louis, Daniel Weller, Hazel Shah, Kristal Southern, Doug Noveroske and Priya Kadam, walks through how the federal government has set and measured national targets for Campylobacter, Listeria monocytogenes, Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) and Salmonella from Healthy People 2000 through the most recent Healthy People 2030 data. Tip of the pen to the authors. It is careful, honest bookkeeping. It is also a report card, and the grades are not good.
What the report card says
In Healthy People 2000, the government set modest targets and met all four. In Healthy People 2010, it set out to cut each infection rate in half and met only one, E. coli O157:H7. In Healthy People 2020, it met none. And in Healthy People 2030, as of the most recent data:
Campylobacter went from 16.2 infections per 100,000 people to 20.6, against a target of 10.9. Getting worse.
STEC went from 4.6 to 5.7, against a target of 3.7. Getting worse.
Listeria went from 0.27 to 0.36, against a target of 0.22. Getting worse.
Salmonella went from 15.3 to 15.2, against a target of 11.5. No detectable change.
Now look at Salmonella across the whole table. The Healthy People 2010 baseline, set in 1997, was 13.6. The target was 6.8. By 2009 the rate was 15.0. The Healthy People 2020 baseline was 15.0, and the final number was 14.5. Today it is 15.2. We have gone from a goal of cutting Salmonella in half, to a goal of cutting it by a quarter, to a goal pegged to FSIS performance standards that simply carried the old target forward – and we are still at roughly 15 per 100,000. Thirty years. Different surveillance, different definitions, different targets. Same number.
The authors are right that comparisons across decades require caution. Baselines moved from single years to three-year averages. Healthy People 2020 began counting all STEC, not just O157. Healthy People 2030 added infections diagnosed by culture-independent diagnostic tests (CIDTs) and dropped travel-related cases. And the authors point to research showing that much of the recent increase tracks the growing use of CIDTs, which find infections that used to go undiagnosed. I take that seriously. But it cuts both ways. If better tests are finding illness that was always there, then the burden was always bigger than we were counting – which is a reason to work harder, not to set softer targets for 2040. And no change in lab methods explains thirty flat years of Salmonella.
We stopped measuring the trend
Here is the part of the article that should alarm everyone. FoodNet, the active surveillance network that has measured these targets since 1996 and covers about 16 percent of the country, went from eight pathogens to two on July 1, 2025, for lack of money. Only STEC and Salmonella are still required. The article says plainly that 2023 is the last year Campylobacter was measured for Healthy People.
To be precise about it, because people who know this system well have corrected me before: sick people are still reported. Cases of the dropped pathogens still flow through the national notifiable disease system, and Listeriathrough the Listeria Initiative. What ended is the measured trend – the ability to say whether anything we do is working. Campylobacter is the pathogen moving fastest in the wrong direction, and it is the one we stopped measuring. And Cyclospora was dropped from FoodNet a year before the country ran the largest parasitic foodborne outbreak in its history this summer, more than 18,000 laboratory-confirmed cases. You cannot hit a target you have stopped measuring. You can only stop being embarrassed by it.
What is at stake
The article cites the numbers. CDC’s most recent estimate is that seven major pathogens cause 9.9 million domestically acquired foodborne illnesses, 53,300 hospitalizations and 931 deaths a year. The Government Accountability Office found that between 2011 and 2022 more than 9,000 foodborne outbreaks were reported in all 50 states, at a cost of $75 billion a year, and that CDC, FDA and FSIS have made limited progress toward their own targets. And those numbers undercount. The case count stops the day the fever breaks. A ten-year-old on dialysis for nine days with hemolytic uremic syndrome does not show up in the death count, and the kidney damage that follows her for the next twenty years does not show up anywhere. These are not abstractions to me. They are my clients.
“The workgroup does not identify strategies.”
That sentence, from the article’s introduction, is the problem in seven words. Healthy People sets the targets. It leaves it to “federal agencies, communities, states, food industry, and organizations across the country” to decide what to do about them. A target without a strategy is a wish.
The article’s own history makes the point. The wins it credits – FSIS declaring E. coli O157:H7 an adulterant in ground beef in 1994, Pathogen Reduction/HACCP in 1996, juice HACCP in 2001, the Listeria rule for ready-to-eat meat and poultry in 2003, six more STEC serogroups declared adulterants in 2011, and the Food Safety Modernization Act – almost all came after outbreaks forced someone in power to act. And the only pathogen in four decades to meet a “cut it in half” target was E. coli O157:H7, the one the government made illegal to sell in ground beef and the industry was forced to test for. That is the lesson of Table 1: binding rules move the numbers. Aspirations do not.
The workgroup is now setting targets for Healthy People 2040. Here are ten things that would actually move the needle. Most of them come out of something I have been working on with friends – and a few people who are not so friendly – from consumer and victims’ groups, public health, state regulators, academia, labor and the food industry itself. We are calling it Project 2027: a working agenda of known problems with known solutions, things that would make American food safer and can be done by people who already have the jobs. The not-so-friendly readers have made it better. They have told me where I am wrong, and a few times they have been right.
1. Enforce the one Salmonella standard FSIS already has, then write the one it needs. In May 2024, FSIS declared raw breaded stuffed chicken with Salmonella at 1 CFU per gram or more adulterated. Testing was to start May 1, 2025. FSIS pushed it to November 3, then on December 2, 2025 delayed it indefinitely with no new date. The standard is law, and nobody is checking for it. Meanwhile, in April 2025 FSIS withdrew its Salmonella framework for the rest of raw poultry after three years of work. That matters to Healthy People directly: the 2030 Salmonella and Campylobacter targets were set to “align” with FSIS performance standards. Step one is to make FSIS publish its method data and set a testing date. Step two is my citizen petition asking FSIS to declare Salmonella at 1 CFU per gram an adulterant in raw ground chicken and turkey and raw chicken parts. I used to be in the beef business with E. coli, and what FSIS did in 1994 took that practice away from me. It is the best thing that has happened to food safety in my lifetime, and every argument being made against doing it for poultry was made and lost by the beef industry thirty years ago.
2. Measure again – the laboratories first. Protect PulseNet and the state public health laboratories that do the sequencing behind every multistate outbreak count; without them an adulterant standard nobody can sample for is a press release. Then restore or rebuild FoodNet for all eight pathogens, with modernization written into the ask rather than used as the excuse to let it go. Consumer and academic groups asked Congress last November for a 50 percent increase, about $36 million, for CDC’s food safety program. Ask again, and this time attach the summer to the request. And Healthy People 2040 should not lower a target because better tests find more of the illness that was always there.
3. Sample the food, not just the sick. From 2001 to 2012, USDA’s Microbiological Data Program tested about 15,000 produce samples a year for Salmonella, Listeria and E. coli, sent its positives to PulseNet and triggered 38 recalls in its last four years. It cost about $4.5 million a year, and it ended in 2012 when nobody asked for the money and Congress did not appropriate it. The produce industry lobbied against it because its findings caused recalls – which is another way of saying it worked. FDA’s own sampling assignments since then have been valuable, but sixteen hundred samples of one commodity every year or two is not a baseline. Two asks: publish, sample by sample, the testing FDA already pays the states to do through its laboratory cooperative agreements, which costs nothing; and fund dedicated produce sampling again. Surveillance of people tells you who is already sick. Sampling of product tells you what is coming.
4. Kill the traceability rider. Section 780 of the law that ended last November’s shutdown bars FDA from spending a dollar to enforce its own food traceability rule before July 2028 and nudges the agency to loosen lot-level tracking, the heart of the rule. I wrote in Food Safety News how that happened. Every day a traceback runs on invoices, phone calls and memory is a day contaminated food is still moving and people are still eating it. The fiscal 2027 appropriations bill should carry no version of that language.
5. Send an inspector when an outbreak points at a plant – and set a floor for the foods that keep making people sick. FSMA sets inspection frequency by risk category, every three years for high-risk facilities, and says nothing about the one event that most reliably tells you something went wrong at a particular plant: people got sick from its product. FDA routinely closes outbreaks without ever walking the facility, which means it never learns the root cause. Require a for-cause inspection within a set period once an outbreak is linked to a firm, with the findings made public. Then do for leafy greens, sprouts, cantaloupe, cucumbers, onions and frozen berries what Congress did for infant formula in 2022: an annual inspection floor, reaching foreign facilities too. That last part matters. FSMA set a goal of 19,200 foreign food inspections a year; last year FDA did 1,024, and as The Washington Post just showed, it has inspected about 2 percent of the Mexican facilities that ship us produce. The Listeria line in Table 1 needs the same discipline on the meat side: when a plant racks up documented noncompliance, as the Boar’s Head plant did before ten people died in 2024, the next step should be suspension, not another report. (In the interest of full disclosure, I represent people sickened in that outbreak.)
6. Let FDA sample the feedlot next door. STEC is rising, and leafy greens keep telling us why. In the 2018 Yuma romaine outbreak, the outbreak strain was found in a canal running past a large cattle operation, and FDA had no authority to set foot on it. The investigation stopped at a fence. The Expanded Food Safety Investigation Act, S. 376 and H.R. 852, would let FDA sample animal feeding operations during an outbreak investigation; it has never had a hearing. My citizen petition asks FDA to do the same thing by rule under section 361 of the Public Health Service Act, the authority it used in 1975 to reach pet turtles. A root cause nobody is allowed to find is a root cause nobody fixes. And this fall’s run of petting zoo outbreaks is the same bacteria without the lettuce.
7. Name the food, the firm and the stores – while it matters. Every day an outbreak food sits in kitchens unnamed adds cases to the Healthy People numerator. On Monday, the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel told HHS that FDA’s own regulations, not the law, keep outbreak supply chain information secret, and that FDA can change them. My two petitions – one on naming firms implicated in outbreaks, one on publishing retail consignee lists in Class I recalls, as USDA has done since 2008 – will go in together.
8. Count what happens afterward. Build a national registry of long-term outcomes from foodborne illness – kidney damage after HUS, reactive arthritis, Guillain-Barré, the rest – seeded through the FoodNet sites and the pediatric HUS surveillance that already runs. USDA’s own cost model admits the long-term data are thin. If Healthy People 2040 measured severity and sequelae and not just case counts, the targets would point at what actually costs this country money and children their kidneys. This is research money, the kind an appropriator can put in report language.
9. Put a name next to every target. Federal food safety oversight has been on GAO’s High-Risk List since 2007. In 2017, GAO recommended a national food safety strategy to deal with the fragmentation among the fifteen agencies and thirty statutes involved. In January 2025, OMB told GAO it had no plans to write one. Healthy People is the closest thing we have to a national scorecard, and by design nobody owns the score. For each pathogen target in 2040, FDA, FSIS and CDC should publish what they are doing to hit it, report against it every year and bring it to their appropriations hearings – and the White House should finally write the strategy GAO asked for nine years ago.
10. Tell people the truth where they buy the food. Some risks will not be regulated away in the next decade, so consumers deserve to know them at the point of sale. My petitions asking FDA to require warning statements on raw milk cheese and raw sprouts – foods that keep turning up in STEC and Salmonellaoutbreaks – ban nothing. They put one sentence on the label.
And an eleventh, for the workgroup itself. Healthy People tracks four bacteria. The biggest number in foodborne illness is not one of them. CDC puts norovirus at 5.5 million domestically acquired foodborne illnesses a year, more than any other pathogen, and the mechanism most of the time is a food worker who came in sick because staying home cost a shift. Put norovirus in Healthy People 2040, and the Food Code’s employee health rules and paid sick leave for food workers will finally have a number attached to them.
None of this works without money.
Every item above assumes someone is there to do it. An adulterant standard nobody can sample for is a press release. A traceability rule with no investigators behind it is a filing cabinet. Congress has to fund the people who do this work, and fund them adequately: FDA’s food program, so it can inspect the plants and foreign facilities it is already supposed to inspect; FSIS and its roughly eight thousand frontline inspectors; CDC’s food safety program, PulseNet and the surveillance that tells us whether any of this is working; and the state and local health departments, public health laboratories and epidemiologists who take the first call, interview the sick, sequence the isolates and find most outbreaks before Washington hears about them. The government spends a small fraction on prevention of what foodborne illness costs this country every year. Cutting it is not saving money. It is moving the bill to hospitals, families and the businesses whose products end up on a recall list.
The petitions
Seven of the asks above do not have to wait for Congress, an appropriation or a new administration, so I am putting them in front of the agencies myself as citizen petitions. To FSIS: declare Salmonella at 1 CFU per gram an adulterant in raw ground chicken and turkey and raw chicken parts, and start the breaded stuffed chicken testing it already promised. To FDA: write a rule letting investigators sample the animal feeding operation implicated in an outbreak; name the firms implicated in outbreaks; publish the stores, restaurants and schools that received food in a Class I recall; put a warning statement on raw milk cheese; put one on raw sprouts; and, with forty-six parents of infants hospitalized in the ByHeart and Nara Organics outbreaks, add Clostridium botulinum to the required testing of powdered infant formula and the dairy ingredients it is made from. That last one is not one of Healthy People’s four pathogens. It should not have to be. If you would like to see the drafts and tell me what I got wrong, email me.
The bottom line
The Healthy People Food Safety Workgroup has done what it was asked to do. It set targets, measured honestly, and published the results, even when the results are unflattering. That is more than can be said for a lot of government. But forty years of data now say the same thing: the targets we met were the ones backed by binding rules, and the ones we keep missing are the ones we left to hope. Healthy People 2040 is being written now. If we want a different report card in 2040, we need different rules in 2027 – and we need to keep measuring.
Read the full article. It is short, and Table 1 is worth the price of admission, which is free. If you want to help with Project 2027, friendly or not, or want to tell me what I left off this list, email me at bmarler@marlerclark.com.
Outbreaks are preventable. But you have to decide to prevent them.









